SK hynix Q3 2026 Earnings: 5 Numbers That Move the Stock
A record profit is already priced in. What the stock is waiting for is something else, and it is not the headline number.
SK hynix reports third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, October 28, followed by Samsung Electronics on Thursday, October 29. Market consensus expects SK hynix to post about 98.2 trillion won in revenue and roughly 77 trillion won in operating profit, a margin near 78%, according to Newsis and Seoul Economic Daily. The real test is whether it announces bigger shareholder returns and how much HBM4 contributed.
Here is the strange part. If those forecasts come true, SK hynix will have posted the biggest quarterly profit in its history, and its share price is still down more than half from the June peak. How does a record-profit chipmaker end up in a bear market? That tension is the whole story of this earnings week.
01The Setup: Record Profit, Falling Price
According to Seoul Economic Daily, SK hynix peaked on June 22, 2026 at 2.919 million won per share. On October 20 it hit a low of 1.223 million won, down 58.1% from that peak. After the company halted a planned U.S. listing of its subsidiary Solidigm on October 23, the stock closed at 1.277 million won, up 4.42% that day. Ajupress reported 1,287,000 won on October 26.
The wider market is under pressure too. Ajupress reports the KOSPI had fallen more than 35% from its June peak, trading near 5,539 on October 26, while Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month KOSPI target to 9,000 from 12,000 but said the market is pricing an overly negative outlook. Oil and U.S.-Iran tensions are also weighing on sentiment, per the same report.
02Number One: The Profit Itself
Newsis consensus puts revenue at 98.23 trillion won and operating profit at 76.96 trillion won. Brokerage forecasts compiled by Chosun Biz vary widely: SK Securities at 79 trillion won, DS Investment and Securities at 70.1 trillion, and Meritz at 80.1 trillion. That is a spread of about 10 trillion won, which means "beat" and "miss" are both live possibilities.
For scale, Samsung pre-announced on October 8 that its own Q3 operating profit would be 107.4 trillion won on revenue of 195 trillion, which the Korea Times notes would be the first time a Korean company topped 100 trillion won in a quarter. SK hynix does not have to win that comparison. It just has to land near its own number.
Korean earnings coverage often gets split between "year on year" and "quarter on quarter" framing. A 577% jump sounds explosive, but the number to watch is the 27.3% rise from the previous quarter, which tells you whether momentum is still building or flattening out.
03Number Two: HBM4 and the Nvidia Question
HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, is the stacked memory that sits next to AI processors, and SK hynix has been the main supplier for Nvidia. The new generation, HBM4, is meant for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. TrendForce, citing Chosun Biz and industry sources, reports that HBM4 shipments may have fallen short of expectations for a second straight quarter because of Rubin delays and longer performance tuning. That is a report, not a company statement.
Why it matters: a stock that has already fallen by half will react more to a changed HBM4 timeline than to a profit beat. JPMorgan, via Money Today, estimates HBM4 average selling prices will rise 121% by 2027 compared with 2025, which is the bull case the market wants confirmed on the call. For where Korea's chipmakers are heading beyond data centers, our earlier piece on why Korea's chip giants are betting on humanoid robots is a useful companion.
04Number Three: DRAM Prices and Long-Term Contracts
Price is the engine. Per DealSite and Hana Securities, DRAM average selling prices rose about 30% in Q2 and are expected to rise another 21% quarter on quarter in Q3, which would lift the DRAM segment's operating margin to about 83%. NAND prices are projected to rise 17% quarter on quarter.
| Item | Reported estimate | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 revenue | 98.23 trillion won | Newsis consensus |
| Q3 operating profit | 76.96 trillion won | Newsis / FnGuide |
| Q4 operating profit | 87.27 trillion won | FnGuide via Chosun Biz |
| DRAM price change in Q3 | About +21% QoQ | Hana Securities via DealSite |
| NAND price change in Q3 | About +17% QoQ | Hana Securities via DealSite |
The other pillar is long-term agreements. SK hynix said on its July call that it had signed multi-year deals with about 10 customers. Why do investors care? Memory has always been a boom-and-bust business, and multi-year contracts are the argument that this cycle is different. Any new detail on contract length or pricing mechanisms is likely to matter more than the profit figure.
05Number Four: The Shareholder Return Announcement
This is the catalyst most analysts are circling. SK hynix has pledged to return at least 50% of cumulative free cash flow from 2025 to 2027 and said it will consider special dividends and extra buybacks and cancellations. Its 40 trillion won buyback, launched in August, was completed through October 21, about a month early, according to the Korea Times and Seoul Economic Daily.
With that program finished, the question is simple: what comes next? Kim Sun-woo of Meritz Securities expects a high likelihood of enhanced shareholder return measures that go beyond prior expectations. Hana Securities' Kim Rok-ho estimates at least 30 trillion won in additional FCF-based returns and expects buybacks and cancellations to play a larger role than dividends.
Samsung is on the same hook. Its board approved a 90 to 110 trillion won return plan in August under a 50% FCF policy, but the Korea Times reports investors were disappointed by the absence of extra buybacks or cancellations. Because that policy expires this year, Thursday's call may hint at the 2027 approach. Treat the two earnings days as one story, not two.
06Number Five: The Solidigm Funding Puzzle
On October 23, SK hynix said in a filing that Solidigm had stopped reviewing a pre-IPO and an IPO, citing capital market conditions, while stressing that growth potential and investment needs had not changed. The listing plan had also raised duplicate-listing concerns, and the Financial Services Commission chairman said it was subject to the duplicate-listing guidelines. Hankook Ilbo lists possible alternative financing: internal cash, borrowing, joint ventures, and customer-backed financing tied to long-term supply deals. No plan has been disclosed, so any hint on the call is meaningful.
07How to Read the Results Without Getting Fooled
- Compare against the right yardstick. Consensus differs by source: the FnGuide figure is 76.96 trillion won, a three-month brokerage average is 77.06 trillion won, and individual estimates range from 70.1 to 80.1 trillion.
- Separate the headline from the guidance. The call matters more than the press release, especially for HBM4 shipments, contract terms, and capital spending.
- Watch the next day. Samsung reports on Thursday, so memory sentiment could be reset twice in 24 hours.
- Remember the macro backdrop. Per Seoul Economic Daily, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% on October 22 after Meta's spending plans spooked AI-related stocks, and AI return worries remain the stated drag on SK hynix shares.
My take: the quarter itself is the least uncertain thing on the calendar. What the market has not made up its mind about is whether AI memory is a one-cycle windfall or a structural business. Contract language and payout policy are the two places where the company can answer that question directly.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does SK hynix report Q3 2026 earnings?
SK hynix reports on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and Samsung Electronics follows on Thursday, October 29, according to the Korea Times.
What is the SK hynix Q3 2026 operating profit forecast?
Consensus is about 76.96 trillion won on revenue of 98.23 trillion won, with an operating margin near 78%, per Newsis and Chosun Biz.
Why is SK hynix stock down if profits are at a record?
Reports point to worries about returns on AI spending, possible slowing chip demand, and a broad KOSPI sell-off. The shares were still about 56% below their June 22 peak after the October 23 close.
What is HBM4 and why does it matter for SK hynix?
HBM4 is the next generation of stacked AI memory intended for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Reports say shipments may have lagged expectations, so confirmation of timing is a key item.
Key Takeaways
- Forecasts call for about 77 trillion won in operating profit and a margin near 78%, but brokerage estimates differ by roughly 10 trillion won.
- The stock needs good news on HBM4 timing, long-term contracts, and a new shareholder return plan after the 40 trillion won buyback ended.
- Samsung reports a day later, so treat Wednesday and Thursday as a single memory-sector event.
The Last Word
Earnings weeks like this are when a business story and a market story finally have to meet. Do you think record profits and falling share prices can both be right at the same time? Share your take in the comments, and I will follow up after the numbers are out.
Sources: Ajupress (October 26, 2026); Seoul Economic Daily (October 23 and 26, 2026); The Korea Times (October 26, 2026); TrendForce (October 26, 2026), which cites Newsis, Chosun Biz, Money Today, DealSite, and Hankook Ilbo. All forecasts are estimates, not reported results.